Summary: Today, Colorado State University’s (CSU’s) Tropical Meteorology Project released its “Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2025.” Similar to last year, forecasters predict above-normal activity for the upcoming season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.
Analyst Note: CSU researchers anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean. The forecast predicts there will be 17 named storms – those reaching the criteria for hurricanes, tropical storms, or sub-tropical storms – and that there is a 51% chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall somewhere on the entire U.S. coastline (with a 26% chance on the U.S. East Coast, including Peninsula Florida, and a 33% percent chance for the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas).
According to CSU, “A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation.” CSU researchers remind entities in coastal areas that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Organizations are encouraged to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
Original Source: https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
Additional Reading:
Mitigation Recommendations:
Related WaterISAC PIRs: 16 & 17
