Last week, NOAA released an updated forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with meteorologists continuing to predict a highly active season. NOAA says near-record sea surface temperatures and the possibility of La Nina are key factors influencing its latest forecast.
NOAA’s latest forecast increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 90% (increased from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 85% chance). Forecasters anticipate 17-24 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), which includes the 4 named storms recorded thus far; 8-13 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), which includes the 2 hurricanes recorded thus far; 4-7 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater), which includes the 1 major hurricane recorded thus. Most of the predicted activity is likely to occur during the peak months (August-October, ASO) of the hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook also examines potential climate influences, including the continued warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation in the Atlantic basin and the possibility of La Nina developing in the coming months. According to NOAA, La Nina can further weaken the wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, which helps create more favorable conditions for storms to develop and intensify. NOAA’s updated forecast is slightly different than the most recent predictions from the Colorado State University’s (CSU’s) Tropical Meteorology Project. Last week, it released its final forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, in which it called for an extremely active season with 23 named storms. Read the full forecast at NOAA.
As forecasters continue to anticipate an extremely active season, organizations are encouraged to start preparing now for potential impacts. Forecasters emphasize it takes just one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for those in its path and remind everyone in areas at risk of hurricanes to prepare the same every season. Earlier this summer, WaterISAC updated its hurricane resource for water and wastewater utilities. The guide, “(TLP:GREEN) WaterISAC Hurricane Season Resource Guide – May 2024,” includes numerous resources regarding hurricanes, including forecasts of hurricane activity; websites for real-time monitoring of hurricane conditions; and tools for preparing for, responding to, and recovering from hurricanes.
WaterISAC encourages members to review these resources (which can also be found in its resource guidebook) for more information on how water and wastewater utilities can prepare for hurricanes and other natural disasters:
