A recent article in the Small Wars Journal, by Professor Mahmut Cengiz, analyzes the Islamic State and al Qa'ida to determine which foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is the greater threat to international security. To understand which group is deadlier, the article assesses both groups’ capacity “in terms of operational and organizational capabilities, use of violence, geographical expansion, and ideological inspiration for lone actors.”

In regard to tactical and operational capabilities, the Islamic State is more capable of conducting complex coordinated terrorist attacks (CCTAs) in Europe than al Qa'ida. But al Qa'ida-affiliated groups in the Sahel, Somalia, and Syria are also capable of conducting CCTAs. On the use of violence, data suggests the Islamic State is more violent than al Qa'ida. In 2019, Cengiz writes, “[Islamic State]-affiliated groups killed or wounded 6,652 people in 959 incidents, while [al Qa’ida]-affiliated groups killed or wounded 4,420 people in 767 incidents.” Moreover, in terms of leadership, the Islamic State has a stronger leadership model, compared to al Qa'ida, which allows its core leaders to exert a greater degree of control over its affiliates.

Both FTOs have a large geographic expansion, with affiliated groups operating across multiple continents. However, the Islamic State’s unique operational, ideological, and organizational model allow groups in other regions to operate as “franchises.” Due to this model, the Islamic State has more affiliated groups than al Qa'ida. Additionally, the Islamic State’s ideology and propaganda have inspired more people to self-radicalize and execute attacks compared to al Qa'ida’s.

In the end, Cengiz does not really conclude that one group is more deadly than the other, although his data points suggest the Islamic State is a deadlier group. Instead he warns both groups deserve close attention. Cengiz argues the world “needs to be aware of [al Qa’ida’s] increasing capacity as a global terror threat,” which is in keeping with past U.S. official assessments on the group. However, in terms of FTO threats to the U.S. homeland the Islamic State’s branch in Afghanistan will likely develop a capacity to strike the U.S. sooner than al-Qaeda. Still, the most immediate threat these groups pose is their continued ability to inspire U.S. based individuals to violence. Read more at the Small Wars Journal.