Today, Colorado State University’s (CSU’s) Tropical Meteorology Project released its “Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2024.” The researchers anticipate well above-average activity for the upcoming season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.
Given the combined hurricane-favorable signals of an extremely warm Atlantic and a likely developing La Niña, the CSU forecast team has higher-than-normal confidence for an April outlook that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active. The team predicts there will be 23 named storms – those reaching the criteria for hurricanes, tropical storms, or sub-tropical storms – and that there is a 62% chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall somewhere on the entire U.S. coastline (with a 34% chance on the U.S. East Coast, including Peninsula Florida, and a 42% percent chance for the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas).
A very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season since a hurricane is fueled by warm ocean water. In addition, a warm Atlantic Ocean leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricanes. This is the 41st year the CSU team has issued the forecast, which is intended to provide a best estimate of activity for the upcoming season – not an exact measure. CSU researchers remind entities in coastal areas that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Organizations are, thus, encouraged to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted. Access the full report at CSU.
WaterISAC encourages members to review these resources for more information on how water and wastewater utilities can prepare for hurricanes and other natural disasters:
