Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2022 seasonal drought outlook for the months of June to August. NOAA predicts the drought conditions will worsen, primarily driven by above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation, across the American West.

Another driver of the enduring drought is La Niña conditions that are expected to persist. La Niña typically leads to warm temperatures across much of the western U.S., warm and dry conditions across the central U.S., dryness in the Southeast, and wetter than normal conditions in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Additionally, NOAA forecasts that “drought is likely to persist across much of the Western [continental United States], with some development also likely in areas experiencing abnormally dry (D0) conditions in the Eastern and Northern Rockies.” And in the Great Plains, drought conditions are likely to persist.

Moreover, as the atmosphere warms and other weather patterns change due to climate change, the nature of drought is evolving. WaterISAC previously reported on research that advocated for changing the definition of drought based on new climate realities. Another evolving aspect of droughts are flash droughts, which are droughts that intensify rapidly over a period of a few weeks and often catch forecasters by surprise. As climate change conditions increase, according to climate researcher Imtiaz Rangwala, “the likelihood of flash droughts that can cause severe impacts to agriculture and ecosystems and promote large wildfires is expected to increase.” Access the NOAA Seasonal Drought Outlook or read a relevant article here.