The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) recently published a report titled “The Rising Threat of Anti-Government Domestic Terrorism: What the Data Tells Us” that analyzes terrorist attacks and plots in the U.S. over the past 30 years. One of the report’s main findings is an increasing terrorist threat to government targets.
To create the report, CSIS compiled a dataset of 725 terrorist attacks and plots in the U.S. between January 1, 1994, and April 30, 2024, specifically looking at attacks and plots against government targets. Notably, the number of domestic terrorist attacks and plots against government targets motivated by partisan political beliefs in the past five years is nearly triple the number of such incidents in the previous 25 years combined. Utilities and their workers are perceived by various threat actors as extensions of the government. The report has three main findings:
- First, there is an increased terrorist threat against government targets today. Since 2016 there has been a dramatic rise in attacks and plots motivated by partisan political beliefs. This includes attacks and plots against elected officials, political candidates, political party officials, political staff and workers, and their offices from terrorists with opposing political views. This elevated threat is in large part due to the increased spread of conspiracy theories that motivate extremists to take violent action.
- Second, there has been a significant shift in the ideologies and organization of anti-government terrorists. From 1994 to 2004, 71 percent of attacks and plots against government targets were inspired by general opposition to federal authority, spearheaded by the broader American militia movement. Today, terrorists attacking government targets are more likely to be motivated by partisan political beliefs and rarely have material ties to any group. From 2016 to 2023, only 29 percent of attacks and plots against government targets were inspired by general opposition to federal authority, while a remarkable 49 percent were inspired by partisan political views.
- Third, the lethality of attacks against government targets remains low. Since 9/11, only four victims have been killed in attacks against government targets, excluding military and law enforcement targets which were coded separately in the CSIS data. The low fatality count is attributable to the hardened nature of government targets and the limited intent and low skill of many perpetrators, though there remains the risk that government targets may be successfully attacked in locations with fewer security measures.
Read the full report at CSIS here.
Additionally, a report this week from the Soufan Center analyzes the current domestic terrorism threat environment, offering four main findings:
- With the U.S. presidential election weeks away, the risk of political violence remains high, the environment in the United States is extremely volatile.
- Politically motivated violent attacks, threats against local officials and poll workers, and heightened political rhetoric have increased in recent months, potentially resulting in increased violence from domestic extremists to election-related targets in the coming weeks.
- White supremacist and militia groups have particularly increased their disinformation campaigns and further mobilized in recent weeks, including intentionally spreading false narratives about Haitian migrants and Hurricane Helene relief.
- Potential election-related violence is not limited to far-right violent extremists, with an increased risk of both reciprocal radicalization – whereas far-right extremist activity fuels others across the ideological spectrum – and attempted plots by Islamic State.
