The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, which is “issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño or La Niña conditions within the next six months.” Currently, the Pacific Ocean is experiencing neutral conditions, with neither El Niño nor La Niña, after two years of La Niña. These neutral conditions are expected to persist until spring, when there is a 62 percent chance of El Niño developing during the May to July timeframe.

Scientists have high confidence in this prediction, which means organizations should begin preparing for the consequences of El Niño this summer. However, the predicted strength of the phenomenon is still uncertain, with a 4 in 10 chance of a strong El Niño occurring. Though the impacts of El Niño are complex, one immediate impact of this change will be on the North American hurricane season, as El Niño leads to more hurricanes forming in the Pacific and less in the Atlantic. Read more at Climate.gov.