Islamic State Threats Persist after Leader’s Death

Last week, the U.S. took out the Islamic State’s top leader in a counterterrorism operation, but the Islamic State and its affiliates will very likely remain an enduring threat to the U.S. and its global interests. Although the death of Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, which WaterISAC reported last week, does represent a strategic loss for the Islamic State, the group’s increasing operational tempo in its traditional core area and in so-called provinces demonstrates its increasing resilience. Indeed, even after the Islamic State lost its physical caliphate in 2019, the group still possessed around 10,000 active fighters and has since transformed into a resourceful, decentralized, and largely rural insurgency with affiliates spanning across multiple continents.

In the Islamic State’s traditional core area, Iraq and Syria, many fighters formed small sleeper cell units and conducted small-scale hit and run attacks. However, the recent Islamic State assault on a prison in northern Syria, which was a highly complex and coordinated attack, indicates the group could constitute an increasing threat for the U.S. and its partners in the region. In fact, U.S. officials estimate that as many as 200 seasoned Islamic State fighters escaped the prison and will likely rejoin their comrades in terrorist activities.

The Islamic State’s affiliate groups also represent an increasing threat. Most notably, the Islamic State branch in Afghanistan has been growing its operational capabilities since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. This affiliate expresses the desire to target the U.S. homeland and in October last year U.S. officials assessed that the group could possess the capacity to conduct attacks against the U.S. in some manner in six to twelve months. The Afghanistan branch also just published its inaugural magazine demonstrating its increasing influence. The magazine praised the recent Islamic State attack on the Syrian prison and profiled past jihadists to “incite our believers.” Read more at the Conversation, Homeland Security Today, and at the Soufan Center.