August 17, 2021
Fred made landfall yesterday near Cape San Blas, Florida as a strong tropical storm, with sustained winds of 65 mph and just 9 mph below Category 1 hurricane strength. As the National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted, Fred brought heavy rains and caused significant flooding for some communities. The most significant impacts to critical infrastructure are power outages, which affected over 36,000 customers in Florida yesterday evening but have since dropped to about 13,000. As of this morning, Fred was located over Georgia and had been downgraded to a tropical depression, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. In its last public advisory on Fred, the NHC reports Fred will move across western and northern Georgia today, across the southern Appalachian Mountains tonight, and into the central Appalachians by early Wednesday. It advised that heavy rainfall in these areas could lead to flash, urban, and small-stream and isolated river flooding. Read the advisory at the NHC.
WaterISAC has also posted below FEMA’s Daily Operations Briefing, which provides more information on the forecast for Fred and response and preparatory measures by federal, state, and local governments.
August 15, 2021
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports Fred has strengthened into a Tropical Storm, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, and predicts it will make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or Monday night. It advises that today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts across southern Florida, the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, southern Alabma, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont. Read more at the NHC.
WaterISAC has also posted below FEMA’s Daily Operations Briefing, which provides more information on the forecast for Fred and preparations being made by federal, state, and local governments.
August 14, 2021
The situation with Fred looks slightly different today, with the system having been downgraded to a Tropical Wave and its track taking it away from Florida's west coast. However, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts Fred will regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow and bring heavy rainfall that could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding and cause new and renewed river flooding across southern Florida, as well as the Big Bend and Panhandle. The NHC predicts Fred will and move inland over the northern Gulf coast Monday night, bringing a risk of tropical storm conditions, especially from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle. From Monday onward, the NHC forecasts heavy rain and impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont. Read more at the NHC.
WaterISAC has also posted below FEMA’s Daily Operations Briefing, which provides more information on the forecast for Fred and preparations being made by federal, state, and local governments.
August 13, 2021
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that today through Monday, heavy rainfall from Fred could lead to areal, urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding across southern and central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onwards, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to continue moving along or near the north coast of central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys on Saturday, and move near or west of the west coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Fred is currently a Tropical Depression, but the NHC expects it to slowly strengthen is expected and become a tropical storm again tonight or Saturday. Read more at the NHC.
WaterISAC has also posted below FEMA’s Daily Operations Briefing, which provides more information on the forecast for Fred and preparations being made by federal, state, and local governments.
August 12, 2021
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is predicting that Fred will begin impacting the Florida Keys and parts of south Florida early this weekend and the remainder of Florida (primarily its west coast and Panhandle, where it is forecast to make landfall) and parts of the Southeast this weekend and into next week. Currently Fred is a Tropical Depression, but the NHC expects it to regain Tropical Storm status over the next couple days and remain at this strength until at least early next week. From Friday into early next week, the NHC predicts heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. Read more at the NHC.
WaterISAC has also posted below FEMA’s Daily Operations Briefing, which provides more information on the forecast for Fred and preparations being made by federal, state, and local governments.
August 10, 2021
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts that a system currently in the Caribbean Sea will become a tropical storm later today and impact the U.S., including portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning this afternoon and potentially parts of Florida by this weekend. For the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, the NHC reports heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potentially mudslides. For Florida, the NHC says it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast. It advised interests there to monitor updates to the forecast for this system. Read more at the NHC.
Assuming the system forms, it will be called “Fred” and coincide with the exact day on which some forecasters predicted that the Atlantic would reawaken following a lull of hurricane activity that started in the wake of Elsa in early July (as WaterISAC reported in last Thursday’s Security & Resilience Update). In another recent forecast, which was published last Thursday by the Colorado State University’s (CSU’s) Tropical Meteorology Project, the researchers decreased their forecast slightly but continued to predict an above-average 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Access the report at CSU.
