Warmer Atlantic Waters May Bring More Hurricanes than Expected; “Above Normal” Season Predicted in the Eastern Pacific

Major Atlantic hurricane season forecasts are out, including from the Colorado State University (CSU) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). While they call for “below-average” and “near-normal” activity, respectively, some forecasters are eyeing chances for increased tropical activity given unusually warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins this Thursday (June 1), will commence with an already established trend of ocean warming that has been building since early March. The warm waters – in some areas setting records for this time of year – could cancel out the prospects for a relatively tame Atlantic hurricane season, creating conditions that could instead fuel an active season of revved-up storms. That warmth could be especially pronounced this year. “Those warm anomalies should, if anything, get stronger,” said CSU’s Dr. Philip Klotzbach, who joined WaterISAC for a Hurricane Season Preparedness webinar on May 3 (access the presentations and recording here). Meanwhile, hurricane activity in the Pacific Ocean is expected to be higher than average thanks to the same phenomenon that is expected to decrease activity in the Atlantic Ocean (the potential effects of warmer waters aside: El Ni ño. This phenomenon is fast developing and typically diminishes activity in the Atlantic while causing more hurricanes to occur in the Pacific. In a separate forecast for the eastern Pacific Ocean released last week, NOAA announced it expects an “above-normal” season. It further explains this means a 70 percent probability of 14-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, and 4-8 major hurricanes. The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially runs from May 15 through November 30. Read more at the Washington Post and the Conversation.